
<table style="text-align:center"><caption><strong>IV estimates of dismissals of tainted ministers on presidential approval</strong></caption>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black"></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td colspan="4"><strong>Smoothed Approval</strong></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td><strong>2SLS</strong></td><td><strong>2SLS</strong></td><td><strong>2SLS</strong></td><td><strong>2SLS</strong></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black"></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:left">Dismissals of tainted ministers (t - 1)</td><td>-21.621<sup>***</sup></td><td>-26.150<sup>**</sup></td><td>29.661</td><td>-42.354<sup>***</sup></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(5.727)</td><td>(13.046)</td><td>(40.809)</td><td>(14.369)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Resignation calls (t - 1)</td><td>2.088<sup>***</sup></td><td>2.447<sup>**</sup></td><td>1.059</td><td>1.599<sup>**</sup></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.698)</td><td>(1.238)</td><td>(1.353)</td><td>(0.639)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Resignation calls (t - 1) squared</td><td>-0.160<sup>**</sup></td><td>-0.432</td><td>0.033</td><td>-0.136<sup>**</sup></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.066)</td><td>(0.765)</td><td>(0.192)</td><td>(0.058)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Issue visibility (t - 1)</td><td>-5.013<sup>**</sup></td><td>-4.975<sup>**</sup></td><td>46.584</td><td>-4.680<sup>**</sup></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(2.310)</td><td>(2.250)</td><td>(41.566)</td><td>(2.201)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Coalition government</td><td>5.031<sup>***</sup></td><td>4.048</td><td>8.512<sup>*</sup></td><td>-15.032</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(1.946)</td><td>(3.502)</td><td>(4.993)</td><td>(9.690)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Dismissals x visibility</td><td></td><td>0.620</td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td>(1.734)</td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Dismissals x calls squared</td><td></td><td></td><td>-210.783</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td></td><td>(169.854)</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Dismissals x coalition</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>86.615<sup>**</sup></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>(43.999)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Constant</td><td>16.125<sup>***</sup></td><td>18.352<sup>***</sup></td><td>3.799</td><td>21.485<sup>***</sup></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(1.363)</td><td>(6.217)</td><td>(10.256)</td><td>(3.219)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Robust SE</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Presidential leverage</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Re-election permitted</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Gov. fragmentation</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">GDP growth</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Inflation (log)</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Honeymoon effects</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Pre-election effects</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td><td>Yes</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Weak instruments</td><td>6.275</td><td>6.275</td><td>6.275</td><td>6.275</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Weak instruments p-value</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Weak interaction</td><td></td><td>0.631</td><td>4.342</td><td>3.549</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Weak interaction p-value</td><td></td><td>0.595</td><td>0.005</td><td>0.014</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Wu-Hausman</td><td>43.225</td><td>22.422</td><td>27.037</td><td>26.187</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Wu-Hausman p-value</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td><td>0.000</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Sargan</td><td>3.374</td><td>3.371</td><td>0.006</td><td>0.327</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Sargan p-value</td><td>0.185</td><td>0.066</td><td>0.941</td><td>0.568</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">VIF</td><td>0.375</td><td>0.386</td><td>0.105</td><td>0.424</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">AIC</td><td>8301.312</td><td>8271.227</td><td>9729.241</td><td>8166.003</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">RMSE</td><td>9.707</td><td>9.574</td><td>18.334</td><td>9.135</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">N</td><td>1122</td><td>1122</td><td>1122</td><td>1122</td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black"></td></tr><tr><td colspan="5"><sup>***</sup>p < .01; <sup>**</sup>p < .05; <sup>*</sup>p < .1</td></tr>
</table>
